Airbnb and Marriott confirm: travel bounce-back is strong
Airbnb and Marriott report explosive growth as borders reopen, remote-work flexibility drives business travel, and long-stalled leisure trips finally resume.
The travel sector appears fully back in business if we are to believe the latest financials from Airbnb and Marriott. Both giants are riding rebounding cross-border mobility, flexible work arrangements and a resurgent business-travel calendar.
Comparing stock performances
The exercise will be to survey the bourse listings of these two leaders and judge which is better placed for the rebound.
Marriott
Current tailwinds clearly favor Marriott. Conferences are accelerating, group travel is climbing, and Dan Wasiolek, Morningstar’s lead travel-stock analyst, values the shares more highly than Airbnb’s. The company operates 30 hotel brands spanning every tier from luxury to economy and spans 139 countries. According to Wasiolek, Marriott stock commands a four-star rating worth $178 per share versus $164 previously, largely thanks to the uptick in group demand.
Airbnb
The same analyst has trimmed the valuation on Airbnb on concerns the “demand fade” will persist. He now rates the shares at three stars, $113 per share versus $116 at peak activity. “Airbnb is an outstanding company with superior growth, but the stock already reflects most of that,” Wasiolek notes. The board nonetheless approved a $2 billion buy-back program, underscoring balance-sheet resilience and robust cash flow.
In raw numbers, Marriott’s share price has held steady year-to-date while Airbnb’s has shed 25.32 %. On a valuation lens, Marriott trades at 14× EV/EBITDA against Airbnb’s 23× EV/EBITDA.
Demand remains robust
Wasiolek says investors can relax: unmet travel demand is still larger than what is being captured. Even if macro conditions soften, he sees no path to negative growth. His optimism is echoed by Marriott’s CEO Anthony Capuano, whose latest outing shows leisure room-nights running 15 % above the worst pandemic weeks.
Capuano is forecasting expanding profit margins by Q3 and year-end. He projects earnings per share rising from $1.59 to $1.69 in Q3 and from $6.33 to $6.59 for the full year—figures that sit well above the Street consensus. STR, the industry analytics outfit, has validated the outlook in a recent note, despite lingering investor scepticism. The report highlights potential group-led demand surges that could offset any softening from leisure summer travel. STR’s leadership states that gloomy forecasts simply do not square with the reality on the ground.
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